Archive for the ‘gc3’ Category

Checking in with Gold

Gold has been trading in a choppy range so far this week, showing some intervals of following historical patterns, for example the first part of Tuesday, and may continue towards a possible weekly high on Thursday. The projection is also for Friday to have the most volatility:


Monday scaled to a similar range of prices over all, while Tuesday similar to the pattern, but didn’t decline. This could point to some bullishness for Wednesday as well.

Early Gaps to the Downside in Gold Could Continue Through Monday

So far in early trading Gold is tracking well with the price action that typically follows a week with a Largest Range of the week being Tuesday as mentioned at the end of last week, “Gold after a Down week with a Large Range Tuesday

Here’s how price is currently tracking with that chart mentioned above:

Gold Gapping Down in Early Sunday Trading - 20160717

In the other scenario from the above analysis on Friday, the opening of the week marks the low, so both charts tend towards a low on Monday. Likewise, the most pronounced rally tends to start late Wednesday in both scenarios.

Gold after a Down week with a Large Range Tuesday

Last week Gold declined, with Tuesday being the largest range day:

A down week in Gold with a large range Tuesday.

The week was also similar to the week before a large range Friday, with steadily declining lows till Thursday:

Gold the week before a large range Friday

Considering the down week and the large range Tuesday, a week like so tends to follow:

A Week After a Down Week and a Large Range Tuesday

Just with the large range Tuesday, the following week is like so:

Gold the week after a large range Tuesday.

The two weeks contradict on Monday, while both agree on rallies form Wednesday to Thursday highs.  Keeping a close watch on Monday price movement should provide insight into which chart is tracking to next week’s price.

Gold Setting up for Another Big Wednesday?

Last week’s downward trend and large range Wednesday tends to produce the following type of price movement:

20160523 Monday Weekly Gold Forecast

With the most notably day being Wednesday, making a large move to the upside. So far Monday’s price movement (in black) has held up with the average pretty well and if Tuesday continues along as well it could set up well for a Wednesday rally.

Generally following a down week is a similar price movement: declining Mondays, flat Tuesdays–with both days near weekly lows, mostly rallying Wednesdays, a sharp decline Thursday after some less volatile price movement, and Friday that can rally or close flat near the open:

20160523b Gold After a Down Week

Gold Checking in with a Wednesday Low

After a Monday that was a bit different than the norm, Gold has tracked pretty closely with its typical pattern, and a nice short trade developed Wednesday.

20160518 Gold Down on Wednesday

As discussed earlier in the week, Thursday and possibly Friday look bearish in Gold as well to round out the week, but tightening trailing stop on the gains of Wednesday would limit total time of trade.

Where is Gold Going? Not Making New Highs.

Gold has been diverging a bit from its average price movement looked at yesterday, with current price overlays here:

20160517 Gold Tuesday

Also mentioned yesterday though, there’s a decent chance at Wednesday hitting the weekly low in Gold like so:

20160516 Monday Gold Prices

Although Gold hasn’t followed this movement as closely either, one of the best fits for Gold’s current price movement also has a Wednesday tracking downward and making even lower lows on Thursday:

20160517 Gold going into a Wednesday Low

All three models are in agreement that Wednesday shouldn’t take out Monday or Tuesday highs.  A profitable, short-term trade could still materialize in the latter part of Wednesday.

Gold Closing near Monday Lows, down Tuesday ahead?

Did you do your homework?  Gold followed many of the points outlined last week: the large range Wednesday model coincided with this Monday, making new highs in the beginning of the day and then having a sharp decline to close near the day’s lows.

There was a time  shift of the decline to later than projected and the price was flat rather than down on the daily timeline, but the possibility of selling based on a break out below Monday’s lows still exists.

20160516 Monday Gold Prices

In terms of best fit, Monday’s price movement is also very similar to a large range Tuesday which has a flat weekly close. This price pattern is also down in the day ahead, but makes its weekly low on Tuesday instead of Wednesday:

20160516 projecting Tuesday's Gold Price

Your Weekend Gold Homework

After Friday closed out the week in gold, closing down more than 25% of the range from the open, and with Monday being the largest range day in the previous week, we get the following two charts:

20160514 Gold Price Movement after a down week with a large range Monday

20160514 Gold the Week After a Large Range Monday

One is considering the effect of the down week, the other is just considering all weeks that followed a large range Monday. Both match closely. Something to note though, see that little rally towards the end of the day on Wednesday? When we look at just the weeks where Wednesday is the largest range of the week we get this:

20160514 When Wednesday is the Largest Range Day in Gold

A noticeable difference in that the rally as it continues into Thursday and possibly into the end of the week.  In all three charts though, price breaking out from the lows of Monday / Tuesday tend to continue down into the later part of Wednesday. Stay sharp, and hopefully golden in the week ahead!

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Intraday Gold Chart for Friday, May 13th, 2016

After a bit of a reversal on Thursday, Gold has been trading in between Thursday’s low and high. The intraday forecast pointed towards a mixed day, it will be interesting to see if Gold can rally close towards the open of Monday, or if it will trade sideways with the week trending down.

2016-05-13 Intraday Gold Report

Intraday Gold Chart for Thursday, May 12th, 2016

As mentioned yesterday, Gold has been following Thursday’s price pattern pretty closely, but in reverse.

A Thursday flip in Gold

So instead of climbing to a high midway through the day and then declining, we’ve seen it decrease to a low midway and then climb. While one of the sharper moves in the week, the day’s range is still much less than Monday’s so as speculated last night, a sharply declining, large range Thursday wouldn’t pan out.

Friday has flat, to upside potential, so there is once again a Friday rally possible in Gold.