Silver Continues Its Downward Trend Into a Flat Friday

The price movement for silver this week continued to match up well with a down week having a large range day on Wednesday (LRwed tab):

Down Week in Silver with Large Range Wednesday

The week that tends to follow shows rallies on Tuesday and Friday, a flat Wednesday and Thrusday, and a large range, down trend Monday.  With such a strong down trend, Monday seems to be a decent candidate for checking the continuation of the trend. A week downward or flat Monday could setup the Tuesday or Friday rallies.

Silver Price Movement Following a Down Week with a Large Range Wednesday

Silver Still Following Down Week Pattern

As mentioned the day prior, Thursday had a tighter range than Wednesday and continued the downward trend. This is also the other big lesson in short term trading, be sure to be aware of the longer term trend of the market.

20170505 Silver Down Week

Catching longer term trends like selling the open of Monday to the end of the week is a more profitable move than being spot on about any of the inner swings within the week.

Silver Moves Lower Still. Tighter Ranges on Thursday and Friday?

So far in the week the price movement in Silver has lined up pretty well with a down week having a large range day on Wednesday.

Silver Down Week with a Large Range on Wednesday

As Tuesday was slightly down instead of rallying, and Wednesday dropped off later in the day. Typically this type of week has its largest ranges on Monday and Wednesday. Thursday and Friday can continue downtrends, but tend to be smaller ranges.

For longer term planning, Mondays following this type of week tend to have a continuation of downward movement. For those looking for a rally, Tuesdays also setup for the best candidate. This scenario is detailed in our member’s area here: Silver After a Down Week with a Large Range Wednesday.

Looking for a Rally in Silver? Tuesdays Make Good Candidates

Silver has a tendency to rally on Tuesdays after a week of steadily down days. And while this week didn’t have one this week, it can pay to be aware of this pattern:

Silver After a Down Week

It can be even more prominent if the largest range of the previous down week is Tuesday as well.

Without a rally on Tuesday current price movement has been more similar to a flat week, with Monday declining into choppy trading the rest of the week.

A Flat Week in Silver

Checking in with Gold

Gold has been trading in a choppy range so far this week, showing some intervals of following historical patterns, for example the first part of Tuesday, and may continue towards a possible weekly high on Thursday. The projection is also for Friday to have the most volatility:


Monday scaled to a similar range of prices over all, while Tuesday similar to the pattern, but didn’t decline. This could point to some bullishness for Wednesday as well.

Early Gaps to the Downside in Gold Could Continue Through Monday

So far in early trading Gold is tracking well with the price action that typically follows a week with a Largest Range of the week being Tuesday as mentioned at the end of last week, “Gold after a Down week with a Large Range Tuesday

Here’s how price is currently tracking with that chart mentioned above:

Gold Gapping Down in Early Sunday Trading - 20160717

In the other scenario from the above analysis on Friday, the opening of the week marks the low, so both charts tend towards a low on Monday. Likewise, the most pronounced rally tends to start late Wednesday in both scenarios.

Gold after a Down week with a Large Range Tuesday

Last week Gold declined, with Tuesday being the largest range day:

A down week in Gold with a large range Tuesday.

The week was also similar to the week before a large range Friday, with steadily declining lows till Thursday:

Gold the week before a large range Friday

Considering the down week and the large range Tuesday, a week like so tends to follow:

A Week After a Down Week and a Large Range Tuesday

Just with the large range Tuesday, the following week is like so:

Gold the week after a large range Tuesday.

The two weeks contradict on Monday, while both agree on rallies form Wednesday to Thursday highs.  Keeping a close watch on Monday price movement should provide insight into which chart is tracking to next week’s price.

Several Charts on EURUSD after Brexit.

A couple weeks after Brexit, the EURUSD continues within the range set on June 24, 2016 with this latest week closing very near its Monday open.

In overall form, the week was pretty similar to a week that follows a flat range:

EURUSD after a flat week.

With Friday being the largest range day of the week and taking the typical downturn when Friday is the largest:

A large range Friday in EURUSD

The upcoming week tends towards either a large range Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. With Wednesday and Friday being the strongest candidates.

First, following the LRD of Friday, and not considering the flat week we get:

After a large range Friday in EURUSD

With Wednesday and Friday being the largest, and the bulk of the week trading in a tight range.

Considering the flat week as well we see:

EURUSD after a flat week with a large range Friday

Both have consensus on a downturn and rally on Wednesday with both weeks closing at highs, with the latter being flatter. Wednesday or Thursday tends to mark the low of the week.

Wednesday makes the best candidate for a short, while the best long move tends to be after mid-Thursday declines.

Gold Setting up for Another Big Wednesday?

Last week’s downward trend and large range Wednesday tends to produce the following type of price movement:

20160523 Monday Weekly Gold Forecast

With the most notably day being Wednesday, making a large move to the upside. So far Monday’s price movement (in black) has held up with the average pretty well and if Tuesday continues along as well it could set up well for a Wednesday rally.

Generally following a down week is a similar price movement: declining Mondays, flat Tuesdays–with both days near weekly lows, mostly rallying Wednesdays, a sharp decline Thursday after some less volatile price movement, and Friday that can rally or close flat near the open:

20160523b Gold After a Down Week

A flip for EURUSD

Although a long side never materialized in EURUSD on Wednesday, and the down side movement was by far the most volatility in the past few days, it’s still interesting to examine what models come close to matching. And in the case of seasonals, there’s sometimes a tendency to see price move in the mirror opposite of the model:

20160519 EURUSD Flipped Seasonal

Again, the long term trend has been up, so other factors would be needed to make the call on the reversal, but if you’re expecting it, and struggling to find the match in the seasonal, sometimes flipping it will dial in the trade.