A couple weeks after Brexit, the EURUSD continues within the range set on June 24, 2016 with this latest week closing very near its Monday open.

In overall form, the week was pretty similar to a week that follows a flat range:

With Friday being the largest range day of the week and taking the typical downturn when Friday is the largest:

The upcoming week tends towards either a large range Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday. With Wednesday and Friday being the strongest candidates.

First, following the LRD of Friday, and not considering the flat week we get:

With Wednesday and Friday being the largest, and the bulk of the week trading in a tight range.

Considering the flat week as well we see:

Both have consensus on a downturn and rally on Wednesday with both weeks closing at highs, with the latter being flatter. Wednesday or Thursday tends to mark the low of the week.

Wednesday makes the best candidate for a short, while the best long move tends to be after mid-Thursday declines.

Although a long side never materialized in EURUSD on Wednesday, and the down side movement was by far the most volatility in the past few days, it’s still interesting to examine what models come close to matching. And in the case of seasonals, there’s sometimes a tendency to see price move in the mirror opposite of the model:

Again, the long term trend has been up, so other factors would be needed to make the call on the reversal, but if you’re expecting it, and struggling to find the match in the seasonal, sometimes flipping it will dial in the trade.

Price is truth. And while our projections for EURUSD were bullish this week, price never broke above Monday or Tuesday highs on Wednesday and instead made new lows closing near the bottom of the range.

The downside potential of the chart above came through, without the rally latter in the day. With Thursday tending to be a flat / sideways day in this scenario, Friday likely holds the last bit of upside potential.

As mentioned last Friday when we looked at what sort of week to expect in EUR/USD one of the charts triggered was based on Friday being the largest range day of the week, with this type of week following:

So far this model, a choppy Monday and Tuesday (and possibly Wednesday) is holding up more so than the steadily rising week of the other two models.  Here’s the model with the current price overlay:

On the positive side for an up trend, Tuesday has made a new high over Monday, and lows have been flat. A market close near Tuesday lows would be an oversold indicator in terms of Williams’ %R, both in 1, 2, 4, weekly, and 10 day timelines–in other words–a decent time to enter a trade on the buy side in an up trend market with a few rallies forecast in the days ahead.

So far EURUSD has tracked with the model presented this weekend as seen with price overlaid here:

If price continues along, Tuesday and Wednesday will close near new highs with Thursday and Friday being a bit more flat, but also possibly making new highs, before settling off of the weekly high.

Will price return to early May highs?  We’ll watch and see.

On Friday we looked at what sort of week to expect in EUR/USD and came up with the following chart, based on Friday being the largest range day of the week, and these types of weeks following:

Another thing to note though, is that a week projecting to have just a large range Wednesday also tends to be up:

And then of course the projection of an up week with a large range Wednesday being another bullish pattern…

Either scenario would provide a nice trade at the breakout of Monday’s high towards early Friday if any of the patterns hold.

With Friday declining heavily, this week seems to best match a week preceding an up week with a large range on Wednesday.

And since Friday has become the large range of the week, weeks following tend towards being up weeks as well, as do large range Wednesday weeks.

It will be interesting to see if EUR/USD rallies through next week and continues the current long term trend.

This week EUR/USD has been tracking pretty well with the week following a Flat Week (+/- 25% of range, open to close) and having a large range Monday. Here’s the chart on that so far:

Monday declined, Tuesday was choppy, Wednesday rallied (but fell short of its late day high), and then Thursday declined, where it’s trading near it’s low today.  On a six month timeline, the trend has certainly been up in EUR/USD, but over the last month it’s closing very near its open of April 12th.  With Wednesday holding as the largest range day of the week, the following week produces either of the following two charts:

Both weeks see a rally on Tuesday and a declining Wednesday.