EURUSD, the Opposite of Up

Price is truth. And while our projections for EURUSD were bullish this week, price never broke above Monday or Tuesday highs on Wednesday and instead made new lows closing near the bottom of the range.

20160517 Slow Tuesday in EURUSD

The downside potential of the chart above came through, without the rally latter in the day. With Thursday tending to be a flat / sideways day in this scenario, Friday likely holds the last bit of upside potential.

Gold Checking in with a Wednesday Low

After a Monday that was a bit different than the norm, Gold has tracked pretty closely with its typical pattern, and a nice short trade developed Wednesday.

20160518 Gold Down on Wednesday

As discussed earlier in the week, Thursday and possibly Friday look bearish in Gold as well to round out the week, but tightening trailing stop on the gains of Wednesday would limit total time of trade.

Where is Gold Going? Not Making New Highs.

Gold has been diverging a bit from its average price movement looked at yesterday, with current price overlays here:

20160517 Gold Tuesday

Also mentioned yesterday though, there’s a decent chance at Wednesday hitting the weekly low in Gold like so:

20160516 Monday Gold Prices

Although Gold hasn’t followed this movement as closely either, one of the best fits for Gold’s current price movement also has a Wednesday tracking downward and making even lower lows on Thursday:

20160517 Gold going into a Wednesday Low

All three models are in agreement that Wednesday shouldn’t take out Monday or Tuesday highs.  A profitable, short-term trade could still materialize in the latter part of Wednesday.

Don’t Sleep on a Slow Tuesday in EURUSD

As mentioned last Friday when we looked at what sort of week to expect in EUR/USD one of the charts triggered was based on Friday being the largest range day of the week, with this type of week following:

Looking ahead a week in EUR/USD

So far this model, a choppy Monday and Tuesday (and possibly Wednesday) is holding up more so than the steadily rising week of the other two models.  Here’s the model with the current price overlay:

20160517 Slow Tuesday in EURUSD

On the positive side for an up trend, Tuesday has made a new high over Monday, and lows have been flat. A market close near Tuesday lows would be an oversold indicator in terms of Williams’ %R, both in 1, 2, 4, weekly, and 10 day timelines–in other words–a decent time to enter a trade on the buy side in an up trend market with a few rallies forecast in the days ahead.

Gold Closing near Monday Lows, down Tuesday ahead?

Did you do your homework?  Gold followed many of the points outlined last week: the large range Wednesday model coincided with this Monday, making new highs in the beginning of the day and then having a sharp decline to close near the day’s lows.

There was a time  shift of the decline to later than projected and the price was flat rather than down on the daily timeline, but the possibility of selling based on a break out below Monday’s lows still exists.

20160516 Monday Gold Prices

In terms of best fit, Monday’s price movement is also very similar to a large range Tuesday which has a flat weekly close. This price pattern is also down in the day ahead, but makes its weekly low on Tuesday instead of Wednesday:

20160516 projecting Tuesday's Gold Price

Weekend Update: EURUSD Edition

On Friday we looked at what sort of week to expect in EUR/USD and came up with the following chart, based on Friday being the largest range day of the week, and these types of weeks following:

Looking ahead a week in EUR/USD

Another thing to note though, is that a week projecting to have just a large range Wednesday also tends to be up:

20160515 EUR/USD

And then of course the projection of an up week with a large range Wednesday being another bullish pattern…

20160515 An Up Week in EUR/USD

Either scenario would provide a nice trade at the breakout of Monday’s high towards early Friday if any of the patterns hold.

Your Weekend Gold Homework

After Friday closed out the week in gold, closing down more than 25% of the range from the open, and with Monday being the largest range day in the previous week, we get the following two charts:

20160514 Gold Price Movement after a down week with a large range Monday

20160514 Gold the Week After a Large Range Monday

One is considering the effect of the down week, the other is just considering all weeks that followed a large range Monday. Both match closely. Something to note though, see that little rally towards the end of the day on Wednesday? When we look at just the weeks where Wednesday is the largest range of the week we get this:

20160514 When Wednesday is the Largest Range Day in Gold

A noticeable difference in that the rally as it continues into Thursday and possibly into the end of the week.  In all three charts though, price breaking out from the lows of Monday / Tuesday tend to continue down into the later part of Wednesday. Stay sharp, and hopefully golden in the week ahead!

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EUR/USD Intraday Forecast for Next Week.

With Friday declining heavily, this week seems to best match a week preceding an up week with a large range on Wednesday.

May Weekly Intraday EUR/USD Forecast

And since Friday has become the large range of the week, weeks following tend towards being up weeks as well, as do large range Wednesday weeks.

Looking ahead a week in EUR/USD

It will be interesting to see if EUR/USD rallies through next week and continues the current long term trend.

Intraday Gold Chart for Friday, May 13th, 2016

After a bit of a reversal on Thursday, Gold has been trading in between Thursday’s low and high. The intraday forecast pointed towards a mixed day, it will be interesting to see if Gold can rally close towards the open of Monday, or if it will trade sideways with the week trending down.

2016-05-13 Intraday Gold Report