EUR/USD Intraday Charting for Thursday, May 12, 2016

This week EUR/USD has been tracking pretty well with the week following a Flat Week (+/- 25% of range, open to close) and having a large range Monday. Here’s the chart on that so far:

20160512 EURUSD

Monday declined, Tuesday was choppy, Wednesday rallied (but fell short of its late day high), and then Thursday declined, where it’s trading near it’s low today.  On a six month timeline, the trend has certainly been up in EUR/USD, but over the last month it’s closing very near its open of April 12th.  With Wednesday holding as the largest range day of the week, the following week produces either of the following two charts:

Looking ahead from 20160512 in EUR/USD

Looking ahead a week in EUR/USD

Both weeks see a rally on Tuesday and a declining Wednesday.

Intraday Gold Chart for Thursday, May 12th, 2016

As mentioned yesterday, Gold has been following Thursday’s price pattern pretty closely, but in reverse.

A Thursday flip in Gold

So instead of climbing to a high midway through the day and then declining, we’ve seen it decrease to a low midway and then climb. While one of the sharper moves in the week, the day’s range is still much less than Monday’s so as speculated last night, a sharply declining, large range Thursday wouldn’t pan out.

Friday has flat, to upside potential, so there is once again a Friday rally possible in Gold.

Gold Report, Wednesday May 11th, 2016

While having its only extended down move for the day when forecast, the move wasn’t nearly as pronounced, possibly indicating some more bullishness within the market. See below.

Gold Report for Wednesday, May 11th

Thursday is already down to the bottom of the range of the late Wednesday move, which in contrast to the charts. It could be that Thursday will best match a flipped day of the two, hitting lows midway through and rebounding some towards close. The sharpest declining Thursday is typically seen when it’s the largest range of the week as well. For it to beat out Monday it would have to go below 1254.5. See-saw price action closing near the open seems more likely given the volatility already seen on Monday.

A Large Range Thursday in Gold

Gold Report, Tuesday May 10th, 2016

Gold has continued to track well with the weekly patterns seen the week after a Large Range Tuesday and during a week with a large range Monday. Tuesday split the difference between the two charts, but overall had a fairly flat open to close. Especially considering Monday’s 1% move to Tuesday 0.06%… The next point of convergence in these patterns though is Wednesday with another projected move to the downside. Both charts also call for a low of the week on Wednesday. As a visual aid, here’s everything over laid on one chart.

Gold Futures on Tuesday, May 10, 2016

The black line on the chart is the close line marking the price of gold from the Sunday open to Tuesday’s close. The chart with a less steep decline on Monday is the Week After a Large Range Tuesday during a Flat Week, while the other one is a Large Range Monday week. While there are differences between the two, both converge near the close of Tuesday and current price has done the same. The next question is, will reality follow history with a decline on Wednesday?

Down Goes Gold

Looks like someone has a case of the Mondays.

As gold declines towards Monday’s close it’s tracking well with the Intraday Seasonal for the week after a Flat Week with a Large Range Tuesday. This week, the Large Range of Monday may hold up as well which could make Wednesday’s lows similar to those of Monday if the entire week isn’t down. Before getting into all that though, let’s look at last week’s call versus this week’s performance.

Gold declining on Monday, May 9th, 2016.

So far so good. Intraday profit before close of Monday is already at a nice point for the day, while price action on Tuesday could be used to help determine the rest of the week’s trades.  As mentioned above, a Large Range Monday in and of itself has some similarities to the week pictured above, but tends to see a rally on Tuesday instead of a flat Tuesday, with Wednesday lows similar to Monday lows. Here are the details on that.

A large range Monday in Gold.

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Gold Futures (GC, COMEX) 15min Intraday Weekly Review

As discussed yesterday, Gold hit on its strong tendency to rally on a Friday following the type of weekly price activity seen from 2016-04-25 to 04-29.  But what of this past week you’re wondering… Well here you go:


Friday closed right near Monday’s open to produce a flat week that tracked similarly to the Intraday Seasonal of a Flat Week with a Large Range Tuesday.  And what kind of week on average follows this?  Glad you asked!


Monday tends to decline to weekly lows in Wednesday.  Will the Job Report bulls prove otherwise? Or will the bears find meat to tear into this Monday?  We’ll see!

Gold has been in an uptrend–with last Monday posting yet another new multi-month high–so any bearish signals should be taken with caution. And a reversal of this pattern would be yet another bullish signal.  Still, if price doesn’t break above Friday highs, Monday could trend down.

Did you buy gold last night?

Another Friday Rally in Gold

From our newest research, all of the five scenario models–following either an up week, large range Thursday or Friday week, or weeks that combined both–each called for a rally on Friday.

Pictured is one of the best matches from the week: The Week After a Large Range Friday.

Friday Rally in Gold

Monday had midpoint rally instead of decline, but still closed mostly flat with the open, while Tuesday was down, Wednesday a small range, Thursday down, and then a rally beginning from Friday’s open onward. With a tight stop in expectation of a stronger rally through the end of the day the trade would have gone from open to ~ 13:30.

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